Concerned about the ups and downs of the market You’ve lost at the starting line-wetnwild

Concerned about the ups and downs of the market? You’ve lost at the starting line, and the stock market has always risen in the long run. As long as the valuation is not too expensive, buying and holding is often a better option than frequent trading. Chen Jiahe’s favorite concern for many investors is the ups and downs of the market. What do you think of the recent market? Is there a big chance for the stock market? RMB devaluation, A shares can not buy it? The author has worked for many years, such a problem can be heard almost every few days. As everyone knows, if an investor is concerned about the ups and downs of the market, then he has lost at the starting line. In history, we have seen the most good stock investment, such as the United States, Peter Lynch, Warren · · Buffett, Yoshikawa Yihide of Japan, Germany’s Andre · Andre Kostolany and so on, are very good at picking good business and stock, rather than the market change point. These investors picking style is different, Peter · Lynch nicknamed "stock amorous", good at choose a variety of investment opportunities, Warren · Buffett is good at long held as excellent the few companies to his turtle three principles of silver possession is famous, Andre · Andre Kostolany often promote their good speculation". But if we look closely, we can see that none of these great stock investors are betting on the ups and downs of the market to make their own careers. They are constantly looking for good investment opportunities, some value values, some see revaluation, while others focus on event driven opportunities, but they ignore the ups and downs of the market, and ultimately can achieve far more than the average investment performance of the market. For example, the long-term rise of a good stock will be much higher than that of a general stock (such as a stock index). By choosing firms with better fundamentals, lower valuations, and higher dividend yields, investors tend to get higher returns than the market. If the stock market long-term return rate is 12% (on the A shares in emerging markets like is a digital, so more pertinent) suppose an investor can each year than the good performance of the market by 8 percentage points, to 20%, then 20 years later, he will get a return of 37.3 times, 8.6 times more than the stock market for more than 28.7 times. And if we look at 40 years (which is the average age from work to retirement), 20% compound interest growth can make the overall rate of return of 1468 times, while the 12% growth rate of stock index is only 92 times the return, the difference between 1376 times. That’s the difference between 8%. Now, we really need to ask, is the market going up or down? Even if a good investor (or, more appropriately, a speculator) cares only about the direction of prices (such as George · Soros), he should not care only about the direction of the market’s rise and fall. How many shares are there in a stock market? How many trading opportunities are there per day? The stock price of A falls sharply, is the market overreaction? The company’s B valuation is very low, but is the company C lower? Company D doubled, is it not?; 关心市场涨跌?你已经输在起跑线上了 股票市场在长期的时间段总是上涨的,估值只要不是太贵,买入持有往往是比频繁买卖更有利的选择。陈嘉禾许多投资者最喜欢关心的问题,就是市场的涨跌。最近大盘你怎么看?股市有大机会吗?人民币贬值A股是不是就不能买了?笔者从业多年,这样的问题几乎隔几天就能听到一次。殊不知,如果一个投资者主要关心市场涨跌,那么他就已经输在起跑线上了。在历史上,我们看到的大多数擅长股票投资的大家,比如美国的彼得·林奇、沃伦·巴菲特、日本的是川银藏、德国的安德烈·科斯托兰尼等等,都非常善于挑选好的企业和股票,而不是选择市场涨跌的时点。这些投资者的选股风格各有不同,彼得·林奇绰号“股票多情种”,擅长选择各种不同的投资机会,沃伦·巴菲特则擅长长期持有为数不多的优秀公司,是川银藏以他的乌龟三原则闻名,安德烈·科斯托兰尼则常常宣传自己“擅长投机”。但是,我们仔细观察,会发现这些伟大的股票投资者没有哪个是靠赌市场涨跌做成自己的事业的。他们不断寻找好的投资机会,有的是看重价值,有的是看重估值,有的则看重事件驱动带来的机会,但他们都无视大盘的涨跌,最终能取得远远超过市场平均水平的投资业绩。举例来说,好的股票的长期涨幅,会远远高于一般的股票(比如大盘指数)。通过选择行业基本面更优秀、估值更低、股息率更高的公司,投资者往往能够获得高于市场的长期回报率。假设股票市场的长期回报率是12%(对A股这样的新兴市场来说是比较中肯的一个数字),那么假设一个投资者能够每年比市场表现好8个百分点,达到20%,那么20年以后,他会取得37.3倍的回报,比股票市场的8.6倍整整多出28.7倍。而如果我们看40年(这也是一般人从工作到退休的年限),20%的复利增长可以使整体回报率达到1468倍,同时12%速度增长的股票指数只有92倍的回报,两者之间相差1376倍。这,就是8%的差距带来的区别。现在,我们还真的需要问,市场是涨是跌吗?退一步说,即使一个优秀的投资者(或者更恰当一点说是投机者)只关心价格的方向(比如乔治·索罗斯),他也不应该只关心市场涨跌的方向。一个股票市场里有多少只股票?每天有多少交易机会?公司A的股价大跌,是不是市场反应过度?公司B的估值很低,可是公司C是不是更低?公司D涨了一倍,是不是投资者太狂热了?公司E的预计私有化价格是52元,可是市价只有47元,这里面有机会吗?如果我们只关心整体市场的涨跌,我们就会错过几十上百幅更美丽的景色。最后,有一个更好的理由让投资者们远离关心市场涨跌:股票市场在长期的时间段总是上涨的,而估值只要不是太贵,买入持有往往是比频繁买卖更有利的选择。这就正如那句华尔街谚语所说的:重要的是在市场里的时间,而不是进入市场的时间。(Time in the market matters, not timing the market.)也就是说,既然股票的基本面在长期是诸多大类资产中最优秀的(内地过去十多年的房地产牛市主要依靠不断抬高的房价租金比实现),那么只要长期持有,这部分钱早晚是投资者的,根本不必频繁地去思考。资本市场的机会多姿多彩、千差万别,而由于股票资产本身就是长周期下极其优秀的资产,所以只要取得比它略好一点的投资业绩,投资者就能在长期取得惊人的回报。那么,我们为什么还要频繁关心市场涨跌呢?难道我们真的有理由相信,自己足够聪明,可以在多少前人都没有走通过的道路上,开辟出一条血路吗?(作者系信达证券首席策略分析师)股市早报,投资前瞻,涨停预测,牛股捕捉,尽在微信号【凤凰证券】或者【ifengstock】  盘后剖析A股走势,指点明日走势,请关注微信号【复盘大师】或【fupan588】  相关的主题文章: